Open Election Thread

Here are a few statistical highlights regarding the First Global (youth 18-29) participation in the 2008 presidential election.

According to initial exit poll data, 66% of First Globals voted for Barack Obama and 32% voted for John McCain. This is the highest proportion of the First Global vote received by any one presidential candidate since exit polls began tracking votes by age groups in 1976. For comparison’s sake, John Kerry received 54% of the FG vote in 2004, Al Gore received 48% of the FG vote in 2000, and Bill Clinton received 53% and 43% of the FG vote in 1996 and 1992 respectively.

Furthermore, First Globals have increasingly diverged from the voting public as a whole. Obama received 66% of the First Global vote compared to 52% of the general vote, while Kerry received 54% of the FG vote compared to 48.1% of the general vote and Gore received 48.0% of the FG vote compared to 48.3% of the general vote. In all presidential elections between 1976 and 2000, the differences in proportion of votes received by the Democratic candidate between First Globals and the general population never exceeded 3.0%.

Turnout analysis is not yet complete but all indications are that this election will mark the largest First Global voter turnout since 1972 (when the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18). Because turnout increased in all age groups, the proportion of the electorate represented by First Globals is likely to remain stable.

For further statistical analysis and discussion of young voters, we recommend the website of the very comprehensive Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, CIRCLE.

But we know statistics only tell part of the story, and that’s where you come in. We’d like to hear about your election experiences – whom did you vote for and why? When did you decide who to vote for? Do you feel youth had more of an impact in this election than in others? What will the youth role be in future elections? Did one campaign do a better job of reaching out to young voters? What do you think were the most important issues to young voters? What do you think President Obama’s first tasks should be?

State of Independents

American First Globals are more likely than other generations to profess their allegiance to third party candidates in national races. When surveyed in October 2008, 15.7% of First Globals claimed they would vote for independent/third party candidates Ralph Nader, Cynthia McKinney, Bob Barr, or “other” in the 2008 presidential election. Only 5.4% of the other combined generations said they would vote for any of these candidates. Likewise, 6.6% of First Globals claimed to have voted for Nader or other third party candidates in the 2004 presidential election, compared to only 3.3% of other combined generations. However, even as they seem more likely to vote for third party candidates, First Globals are only slightly more likely than the rest of the population to be registered as independents or members of a third party , with 22% of First Globals registered as third party/independents compared to 21% of the rest of the population.

Some say that multi-party political systems (such as those found in much of Europe) better represent the variety of opinions and preferences held by the public. Others say that having multiple parties fragments the political scene and sometimes results in minor parties obtaining disproportionate influence within multi-party coalitions. What do you think? And is it significant that American First Globals are apparently more likely to vote for third party or independent candidates even as they register as independents or third party members in approximately the same numbers?